Kuwait expects to raise oil production to 2 million barrels per day within a week, up from 573,000 bpd in May, as the Strait of Hormuz reopens after a U.S.-Iran deal, officials said on June 19, 2026. Sheikh Nawaf Saud Al-Sabah, deputy chairman and CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corp., stated that prewar levels could return within weeks once commercial shipping resumes. The country slashed output below 600,000 bpd due to reliance on the strait with no alternatives, one of the worst impacts among OPEC producers from the Feb. 28 conflict.
The comments from Al-Sabah highlight the severe effect the closure has had on Kuwait, which according to the report was forced to reduce production as one of the OPEC producers most dependent on the strait. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has noted that the Strait of Hormuz normally sees transit of approximately 17 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products. This accounts for about one-fifth of global oil consumption, making any disruption a significant event for energy markets worldwide.
Kuwait lacks the pipeline infrastructure available to Saudi Arabia and the UAE for bypassing the strait, a factor that exacerbated the production drop to levels under 600,000 bpd in recent weeks. An official from the Kuwait Petroleum Corp. indicated earlier this month that full restoration could take as long as 12 weeks after reopening. Refining operations are expected to normalize sooner, within two to three weeks, while initial recovery to 70 percent of capacity may occur in six to eight weeks.
The potential increase aligns with Kuwait’s typical output, which stood at 2.69 million barrels per day in 2023 according to data from the Kuwait Embassy, though more recent Baker Institute reports place 2025 production at the OPEC quota of 2.5 million bpd against a 3 million bpd capacity. The country, a founding OPEC member with 6 percent of global reserves, has set ambitions under its Vision 2035 to reach 4 million bpd capacity. Al-Sabah was quoted as saying, “Prewar production levels could be restored within weeks once regular international commercial shipping to Kuwait ports has resumed.”
Prior to the formal deal, Kuwait had already begun marketing crude cargoes to Asian buyers for the first time since the conflict commenced, the report added. This move signaled early confidence in potential resumption of flows through the critical waterway that opened after the Feb. 28 start of hostilities. Observers will watch whether actual production ramps match the one-week target for 2 million bpd or face delays from logistical challenges at ports.
OPEC as a whole produced 32.8 million barrels per day in 2023, with Kuwait contributing as a key player in efforts to balance global supply, Statista figures show. The current situation follows a period where OPEC+ implemented voluntary cuts to support prices, affecting members including Kuwait. The restoration efforts could influence oil prices if multiple producers return volumes simultaneously, according to the analysis.
According to the report by Charles Kennedy on OilPrice.com, the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has made producers hopeful about restoring shut-in volumes estimated at 13 million bpd across the Middle East. The publication noted that Kuwait will need time to rebuild after months of curtailed operations. This includes ensuring that port facilities and infrastructure are ready for increased throughput following the extended closure.
