Kuwaiti financial analyst Alaa Behbehani described the year’s gold price movements as part of an exceptional cycle that saw the metal surge above $5,500 an ounce early in 2026 before correcting sharply, according to local reporting. Behbehani said it remained premature to conclude that gold had shed its safe-haven status, framing the drop below $4,000 in June and subsequent recovery to around $4,350 as a correction of prior overvaluations rather than any collapse in underlying fundamentals. The analyst noted that even safe-haven assets can experience sharp sell-offs during crises when investors require liquidity, distinguishing between an asset that never declines and one that retains value over time.
Behbehani pointed to sustained central bank accumulation as a key pillar supporting gold’s role, a view echoed across the expert commentary on August 13. The analyst highlighted that the relationship between geopolitical events and gold prices is not automatic, with outcomes depending on accompanying factors such as oil price spikes or shifts in inflation expectations. Such nuances explain why tensions, including those between Iran and the United States, have not produced uniform safe-haven buying in the current environment.
Financial expert Alamdar Al-Mousawi agreed that gold had not forfeited its safe-haven characteristics but added that the rules governing its performance had evolved in recent years. Al-Mousawi observed that wars and conflicts alone no longer serve as the sole determinant for price direction, with interplay from dollar strength, interest rates and broader economic variables often proving more influential. The expert cautioned that prices may still decline despite heightened tensions if large positions face liquidation, leading to varied forecasts given the prevailing uncertainty.
Mohammad Hatab, another Kuwait-based analyst, noted that gold had not actually declined from its opening levels for the year when viewed from the January peak near $5,500 to the current vicinity of $4,350. Hatab attributed recent volatility to geopolitical developments, including the Iran-US confrontation, which prompted some investors to shift toward oil rather than traditional havens. The analyst’s assessment placed the drop in the context of profit-taking after record highs rather than any fundamental reassessment of gold’s protective qualities.
World Gold Council figures show central banks made net purchases of 244 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026, a 17 percent increase from the previous quarter and above the five-year average. The council’s 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey found that 89 percent of respondents expect global official gold holdings to rise over the next 12 months, with a record 45 percent anticipating increases at their own institutions. Poland led buyers with 64 tonnes accumulated so far in 2026, followed by Uzbekistan at 33 tonnes and China at 25 tonnes, according to the council’s data released in July.
The experts collectively advised a measured approach to gold investments, recommending gradual accumulation only when buyers maintain clear objectives and risk parameters. Al-Mousawi in particular stressed the importance of aligning purchases with individual financial goals amid differing analyst projections for the remainder of the year. Such guidance arrives as gold continues to reflect a blend of safe-haven demand and responses to monetary policy expectations.
